The global packaging landscape is undergoing a seismic shift. As we look toward the 2030s, the battle between Folding Boxboard (FBB) and Solid Bleached Sulfate (SBS) is no longer just about print quality—it is a race for sustainability, material efficiency, and cost-optimization.
While SBS has historically dominated the North American market, FBB is rapidly becoming the global standard. This guide analyzes the demand trajectory for both materials over the next decade, providing the data points you need for long-term procurement and brand strategy.
1. What are the Current Market Projections for FBB and SBS?
The total market for paperboard and folding cartons is expected to grow from approximately $185 billion in 2025 to over $287 billion by 2035, maintaining a steady CAGR of 4.47% .1 However, this growth is not distributed equally between SBS and FBB.
The Rise of FBB (Folding Boxboard)
FBB is currently the fastest-growing cartonboard grade globally.2 In 2023 alone, it saw a 24% year-over-year increase in some regions.3 Experts predict FBB will continue to gain market share because it offers a “bulkier” structure, allowing brands to use less raw fiber to achieve the same package thickness as SBS.
The Resilience of SBS (Solid Bleached Sulfate)
SBS remains the preferred choice for the ultra-luxury segment.4 While its growth rate is slower than FBB, its demand is anchored by industries that require absolute purity and premium “hand-feel,” such as high-end perfume, tobacco, and specific medical devices.
2. Why is FBB Predicted to Outperform SBS in Growth?
The next 10 years will be defined by “Light-weighting.” This technical trend is the primary driver behind FBB’s dominance.
Yield Advantage and Cost-Efficiency
FBB is a multi-ply board that “sandwiches” mechanical pulp between layers of chemical pulp.5 This structure provides high stiffness at a lower weight.6
- Fact: Switching from SBS to a modern FBB (like Performa Nova) can offer a yield advantage of up to 18% .
- Impact: For a brand owner, this means 18% less material is purchased, shipped, and taxed under emerging Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) laws.
Strategic Asset Conversion
Major paper mills are already voting with their capital. For example, industry giant Billerud is converting older SBS machines into large-scale FBB mills (notably the Escanaba mill project slated for completion in phases through 2029).7 This indicates a structural move by manufacturers to favor FBB production over traditional SBS.
3. How Will Sustainability Regulations Impact Demand by 2035?
The regulatory environment of 2025–2035 will be the harshest yet for non-optimized packaging.
- The Plastic Substitution Wave: Both SBS and FBB will benefit from the global ban on single-use plastics. However, FBB’s lower carbon footprint (up to 30% lower in some specialized grades) gives it a competitive edge in “Carbon Labeling” requirements.
- Europe’s PPWR Influence: The EU’s Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) , implemented in early 2025, sets a precedent for minimizing “empty space” and material weight.8 This directly favors the high-stiffness, low-weight properties of FBB.
- E-commerce Evolution: As online retail continues to grow at a 14.4% CAGR, the demand for “Ship-in-Own-Container” (SIOC) packaging will rise.9 FBB’s rigidity makes it ideal for durable e-commerce mailers that don’t need an extra outer box.
4. SBS vs. FBB: Which Industries Will Stay Loyal?
Despite FBB’s growth, the market will not completely abandon SBS. The demand will bifurcate based on “Performance vs. Presentation.”
| Industry | Future Dominant Material | Reason for Choice |
|---|---|---|
| Luxury Cosmetics | SBS | Requires the “pure white” edge and superior embossing depth. |
| Pharmaceuticals | FBB / SBS | FBB for mass-market pills; SBS for high-value biologics. |
| Frozen Food | FBB | High moisture resistance and better cost-per-unit for high volume. |
| Tech/Electronics | FBB | Lightweighting reduces global shipping costs for heavy batteries. |
| Confectionary | SBS | Zero odor/taint risk is critical for high-fat chocolate products. |
5. Regional Outlook: Where is the Demand Shifting?
- North America: Historically an SBS stronghold due to local mill configurations.10 However, a “tipping point” is expected by 2030 as domestic FBB capacity comes online and European imports increase.
- Asia-Pacific: This region is already the global leader in FBB production. With China and India driving a massive surge in packaged food demand, the APAC region will account for the largest share of FBB consumption by 2035.
- Europe: Already a mature FBB market, the focus here will shift toward Smart Packaging—integrating RFID and QR codes directly into the FBB coating for supply chain transparency.
FAQ: The Future of FBB and SBS
Will SBS become obsolete by 2035?
No. SBS will remain a vital “niche” material for luxury and pharmaceutical applications where absolute fiber purity and maximum smoothness for high-speed printing are required.11 It is a slow-growth, high-value segment.
Is FBB really more sustainable than SBS?
Technically, yes. FBB uses “more of the tree” by incorporating mechanical pulp, which has a higher yield than the chemical-only process used for SBS. Additionally, FBB’s lighter weight reduces CO2 emissions during transportation.12
Which material is better for the growing “Frozen Food” sector?
FBB is currently winning the frozen food battle. Its layered structure provides excellent dimensional stability in fluctuating temperatures, and its cost-effectiveness is vital for the low-margin, high-volume grocery industry.13
How does “Smart Packaging” affect these boards?
Both boards are excellent substrates for printed electronics and NFC tags. However, the smooth, uniform surface of SBS currently provides a more stable base for conductive inks used in high-tech “active” packaging.
Will prices for FBB stay lower than SBS?
Generally, yes. Because FBB uses less expensive mechanical pulp in its core and offers a higher yield per ton, it will likely maintain a 10%–20% cost advantage over SBS for the foreseeable future.